Wednesday, September 18, 2013

Best Two Weeks of the Year

Admittedly a baseball homer, but how can these last two weeks not excite the casual fan. In the American League there are 6 teams vying for 2 playoff spots. The Orioles, The Yankees, The Royals, The Indians, and The Rangers are all within 3.5 games of each other. Most teams have 12 games or less left to play. After 5 1/2 months of grinding baseball it comes down to playing the best two weeks of baseball. This makes people people in Kansas City and Cleveland have something to care about. Even with this new format, people in these cities are not coming to the games. There was 10,786 announced gate at a Rangers/Rays game on Tuesday. There was 60,870 at the Tampa Bay Buccaneers New Orleans Saints football game this past Sunday. I know football is king in this country, but come on Tampa Bay! You have a team that could win the World Series. The Buccaneers lost to the East Rutherford Jets in Week 1.


I had the privilege of attending the Atlanta Braves Washington Nationals day game yesterday. The Nationals have been playing fantastic baseball and have a real outside chance to make the playoffs in the National League if the Cincinnati Reds collapse. The announced gate was 25,066.. they were lucky if they had 8,000 people. To be fair, people were probably still spooked from the Navy Yard shooting the day prior. There was 82,743 at the Washington Redskins home opener. I sat 5 rows back and I think Bryce Harper was trying to use me as the cut off man in the 9th. It was a fantastic game with the Braves coming back from 3-0 to score 5 runs in the last three innings to take a 5-3 lead into the bottom of the 9th.
The Braves sent out their lights out closer Craig Kimbrel to finish the game. Kimbrel had not blown a save since early May. The Nationals willed there way to a win with walks and ground balls  to a 6-5 win. I am pulling for the Nationals, but I do not think this city is equipped for playoff baseball. Any city where the majority of people are wearing jackets to a game that I get a sunburn at do not deserve Autumn baseball.


American League
AMERICANWLPCTGBHOMEROADRSRADIFFSTRKL10
Texas8268.547-39-3543-33667599+68Won 12-8
Tampa Bay8268.547-46-2936-39640601+39Lost 15-5
Cleveland8269.543.545-3037-39686631+55Won 16-4
Baltimore8070.533242-3338-37699652+47Won 25-5
NY Yankees7972.5233.544-3135-41619636-17Lost 44-6
Kansas City7972.5233.541-3638-36610570+40Lost 16-4
LA Angels7378.4839.535-4038-38692688+4Lost 16-4
Toronto6981.4601337-3932-42663708-45Won 15-5
Seattle6685.43716.533-4233-43578710-132Lost 32-8
Minnesota6486.4271831-4333-43577710-133Lost 23-7
Chicago Sox6091.39722.535-4025-51559665-106Won 24-6
Houston51100.33831.524-5327-47591793-202Lost 44-6
National League
NATIONALWLPCTGBHOMEROADRSRADIFFSTRKL10
Pittsburgh8764.576-48-2839-36582541+41Lost 26-4
Cincinnati8666.566-48-2638-40662549+113Won 26-4
Washington8170.5364.544-3237-38620594+26Won 39-1
Arizona7674.507943-3333-416326320Lost 15-5
Philadelphia7180.47014.543-3428-46581698-117Won 27-3
San Diego7080.4671541-3329-47574659-85Won 37-3
San Francisco7081.46415.538-3832-43593647-54Won 47-3
Colorado6983.4541742-3227-51660696-36Lost 13-7
NY Mets6783.4471831-4436-39582648-66Lost 14-6
Milwaukee6783.4471835-4132-42593652-59Won 37-3
Chicago Cubs6388.41722.529-4634-42578637-59Lost 43-7
Miami5596.36430.531-4424-52485618-133Lost 42-8

CONCACAF and the World Cup

Grant Wahl over at SI.com came out with an article a little over a week ago where he made the following statement:

"The dirty little secret of CONCACAF is that the region doesn't deserve its current 3.5 World Cup slots and probably should get no more than two. World Cup qualifying in CONCACAF is one of the most forgiving formats in world soccer, allowing you to mess up again and again and again (as Mexico has during this Hex) and still have a chance of advancing to the Big Show in Brazil."

 I don't know much about other confederations' qualification processes, but that is surely nothing to hold against CONCACAF.  CONCACAF directly benefits from sending its best teams to the World Cup so why would it have an unforgiving process that could send the BVIs?  That was a dumb comment, Grant.  Regardless, and as I'm sure you've guessed, I added the emphasis on what struck me as a particularly - nay, painfully - subjective statement.  And, quite naturally, Mr. Wahl provides nothing - not even overall win/loss records or something lame like that - in order to back up his assertion.

So I decided to help:




I know it's a little messy so let me explain.  The "FIFA coefficient" number is essentially the win-ratio average at the last 3 World Cups (since the far majority of players don't last more than 3 World Cups and it could be argued that the sport fundamentally changes sufficiently in 12 years to make anything before that more or less irrelevant).  Anyways, 1 point for a win and 0.5 for a draw in all matches against opponents outside your confederation in the World Cup (to maintain consistency throughout the rounds).  That total is divided by the total matches played for each of the 2002, 2006, and 2010 World Cups and the average is obtained.

[ (Total Points/Total Games) + (Total Points/Total Games) + (Total Points/Total Games) ] / 3

= FIFA Coefficient for the confederation for all 3 World Cups

Then, I simply divided the FIFA-allocated "WC Spots" by each Confederations' "AVG FIFA Rank" and multiplied it by the "FIFA Coefficient" number.  I think this should standardize everything and removed any of the bias that is entered due to some confederations having so many more countries than others.  I'm not really a statistics guy though.  Although I did enjoy Moneyball.

Anyways...The numbers seem to quite clearly indicate that CONCACAF, if anything, deserves one of Africa's spots.  UEFA and CONMEBOL are quite clearly a long ways ahead of everyone - and deservedly so - as South Korea in 2002 was the first team since the USofA waaay back at the beginning to make the semi's and NOT be Euro or Latino.  Those confederations are significantly better and as a result deserve commensurate representation.  If you take one of Africa's spots and give it to CONCACAF the coefficients look like this:


Much better distributed.  CONCACAF has performed better internationally (a higher FIFA Coefficient) even though it has a lower average FIFA ranking.  Asia and Africa have an identical FIFA Coefficient and if you take away one of Africa's spots and give it to CONCACAF, they now have a comparable "World Cup Slot Allocation Coefficient."  (I should really give the resultant column a title.)

Anyways...very messy...Again, I'm not a Stats guy.  I actually hated Stats...but I think these numbers show that Grant Wahl is nothing but a big, fat, lousy HATER.  U-S-A! U-S-A! U-S-A!

...JG

Side Thoughts:
1.  Is this why Luis Suarez received so much shit for the handball that prevented Ghana going through to the semis?  (because you all would have done the same thing.  Lying is a sin.)
2.  I feel like something needs to be done with the outliers.  The guys that really, really suck and will never have a chance to win.  But if you do that don't you have to remove the guys up top too?  In sports that doesn't seem to work.
3.  I had my doubts but UEFA really is the best confederation.  Thank you, Spain.
4.  Poor, Poor Oceania.

Thursday, August 8, 2013

Used Golf Balls, Televisions & Life Advice



I was fortunate enough to be graced with a phone call this morning from my creator. Most of the conversations are not "conversations" but random life ramblings and everything my father has done in the last 48 hours. He started the conversation off by the anxiety he has from the excess amount of golf balls he has and how he needs to get ride of them. Mind you, the man does not purchase golf balls, but will wander aimlessly into the woods during a round of golf in search of more unneeded balls.(My comments blue, my father red. "Shamey, should I mail them to you?" "Used golf balls, Dad? No, I am good." "Well, what am I going to do with all these balls?" After a few more rambling thoughts, he quickly moved onto fitness. "Are you working out?" "Yeah, I "Yeah, your mother and I are doing great. I mean we are walking every day, I have lost 16 pounds, your mother 28 pounds, but you know.. It gets dark up here earlier, so I do not know where we are going to walk in the fall.. maybe drive to Leominster and let your mother walk around the mall at night." 

My dad quickly asked if I had unlimited minutes (he was calling from the landline) "Yes" "You know Shamey, Mom and I will send down the old T.V. to you. I mean we do not need it. We will ship it down." "No, thanks Dad I do not want "Why? why do you not want the T.V.? It is a nice TV. you know you can watch your soccer matches on it?"  This is the TV he wants to ship to me.

After a good 5 minutes of firm No's and No, thank you's he understood accepted I did not want his pre-internet TV. From here we moved to one of his favorite topics Real Estate. "You know if I had bought a home in the Cape(Cod) 1980 versus this cesspool Gardner, the house would be 4 or 5 times the value. I mean I could not sell this house. This city has been decreasing in population since World War 1.. I mean who wants to live here. You got to get inside 495 if you want to live in Massachusetts." He jumped to how 1 in 3 old people fall down. "Where did you get that stat?' "Oh, it is all over the television. You know those infomercials.. so you think about those things when you get older.. your mother and I cannot be walking in the dark." Once he tired from talking he wrapped up the conversation with "Make sure you workout."

Tuesday, August 6, 2013

No PasarĂ¡n: Goodbye Jose



The Tomkins Times has published my latest bit of drivel.  It seems to have gone over well and the sad but God's honest truth is there's very little hyperbole involved.  That stuff happened.  Check it out:

http://tomkinstimes.com/2013/08/an-americans-trip-to-anfield/

And since I imagine you all aren't paying-members, here's the rest...


...I spend the rest of the evening on the Ropewalks trying to legitimise my [impossibly laughable] “American on a pilgrimage to Anfield,” bit before catching something that changes my plans: Anfield is open for Matchday stadium tours. It’s unexpected and provides an infinitely better exit excuse than headache avoidance, thus bringing to a close my evening out in Liverpool. It doesn’t, however, mellow the anticipation. Regardless, I eventually manage restless sleep and awake to find little has changed, the late morning greyness wholly mirroring that of the late afternoon. While I dress, I start to wonder if this place could be some Truman Show for REST (2) patients, some existential effort to catalogue the effect on a city, of a football club that scoffed at the creeping industrial decay in preference of an ascent to the peak of European influence: an-honest-to-Fowler, real-live per angusta ad augusta. Because the truth is that Liverpool’s is a shirt so laden with silverware that it on occasion proves suffocating, resembling much more albatross than Liver Bird to the players donning it.  And this didn’t occur by chance.  It was spurred by a support unified around a club it saw as an extension of the community in which they resided.  Through the gates of Anfield Road, the Scousers gathered and demonstrated through song and voice their devout admiration for a club experiencing the very opposite of their own:
“It turned you into a member of a new community, all brothers together for an hour and a half…you had escaped with most of your mates and your neighbours, with half the town, cheering together, thumping one another on the shoulders, swapping judgments like Lords of the Earth, having pushed your way through a turnstile into another and altogether more splendid life.”(3)
I hustle downtown in search of the #26 bus that will take me past Anfield.  It’s a full six hours before kickoff and I’m still hopeful that I’ll get on with a tour. And if not, a few pre-match pints at the Sandon should provide a more than sufficient alternative. Unfortunately the driver’s a Bluenose though and prolongs the trip through needless backtracking additional unnecessary stops (or so I imagine), before finally the Centenary Stand pierces the roofline. And it’s striking. But not striking in the sense of size or grandiose or anatomic beauty (4), it’s striking in its impossibly thorough regularity. It sits firmly within suburban stagnation, and it’s comfortable there.
I float off the bus, eyes fixed on “The Kop,” stand below Shankly’s outstretched arms and would swear the bricks whisper, “I’ve seen what a Franco-less Madrid, a Berlusconi-less Milan, and a Messi-less Barcelona can only dream of. I AM the proletariat. I AM THE BEAUTIFUL GAME.

And yet somehow …  some way … some people choose the Arsenal.

I can’t believe my luck as the final tour of the day departs shortly.  I join up to come within inches of the Istanbul cup, touch This is Anfield, and finally march down the players’ tunnel. Things seem to move very quickly around me. I sit in the first row and think – there’s Stevie Heighway’s left wing; Dalglish’s [or still Keegan’s?] #7; Bruce Grobbelaar’s wobbly legs; Shankly, Paisley, and Fagan pacing the sidelines… before noticing the group has walked on. It doesn’t matter though…a stream of YouTube clips is passing before my eyes. Here I am at Anfield … home to Liverpool Football Club for nearly 12 decades … the only home it’s ever had …. the most successful English side of all time …. the …

“Come along, Dev.  The tour’s ending” wipes away the moment. I walk on behind the Kop, and exit out into the frigid sogginess in search of that pre-match pint.

There’s something inexorably strange about being American and supporting Liverpool Football Club. And it’s much less ephemeral than “Built by Shanks, Destroyed by Yanks(5).” Despite its global appeal, the club is so profoundly Scouse and so firmly rooted to the heritage which spawned the Famous Red that pouring myself into it feels almost irresponsible.  How on earth, for example, can I ever truly come to terms with Hillsborough?  I waited with honest and genuine anticipation for the Panel’s words; I’ve watched and been moved by Bill Kenwright’s speech (on numerous occasions); I do not, no matter how tempting, under any circumstances, click on anything from the Sun; and even though I know very little about the woman, I can’t stand Margaret Thatcher. And yet every time I consider the thought of the 96 I feel guilty. Guilty that I’m attempting to force my way into a Club and a despair that could only have been lived to have been understood. Can you imagine losing a loved one? What about knowing the loss was through horrific event mismanagement ? And what about if afterwards he or she was blamed for it? For over two decades. And all along the way you’re told simply to “move on.” In what might turn out to be the understatement of my life: that’s difficult to grasp.

The subtleness with which Jose Reina has exited Liverpool, combined with his heartfelt goodbye letter, has finally got me to write about my trip to Anfield. And as I hope to have conveyed to you all, it was a genuinely special event for me. It didn’t matter that Liverpool were in the middle of its worst league finish in 50 years.  Or that I’d heard You’ll Never Walk Alone louder a few days earlier(6). Or that Liverpool’s latest sublime #7 didn’t play. Because after witnessing in person the angelic purity with which Kenny Dalglish celebrates each and every Liverpool goal, it dawned on me why I’m a Red. Rarely do clubs produce such devout acolytes in the manner and consistency in which Liverpool Football Club does. And rarely do clubs turn exceptional footballing talents into exceptional members of the community.
Pepe is right; it’s special. And it seems horribly unfair that when the tumble appears finally to have been halted and the putrid shadows of Hicks and Gillett to have finally been purged, Reina should be shown the door. But par excellence and as Dalglish before him, he remains almost impossibly gracious in exit. Jose Manual Reina Paez has served Liverpool loyally for eight years, through four managers, an 8th place finish, and in the face of resounding criticism for three full years now.  I for one will miss him greatly.  No pasaron, Pepe, ni pasarĂ¡n.  You’ll Never Walk Alone.



(1) Winning a 5th European Cup was not just winning any other.  Until recently, any team that won three straight or five total got to keep the real, authentic trophy. Liverpool are one of five clubs that will forever possess a real European Cup. Eat your heart out Barcelona, Manchester, London, and France.
(2) REST = Restricted Environmental Stimulation Therapy
(3) J.B. Priestly – The Good Companions
(4) Yes, Anfield is alive.
(5) Of which, I am not.  I am a Southerner, thereby excluded from that wretched label.
(6) I got a ticket to the Old Firm as a warm-up for Anfield.