Thursday, October 17, 2013

Jacoby Ellsbury will be in the NYC(gulp)..... Mets

Jacoby Ellsbury's stock is rising faster than twitter's prospective IPO. Ellsbury is single handedly keeping the Red Sox from getting embarrassed by the Tigers in the ALCS. Ellsbury will be a free agent this fall and I find it hard to believe he will not land in New York.

First instincts would be the Yankees. There outfield consist of the ageless Ichiro (due to be 40 by 2014 season), Granderson (32 year old free agent) coming off injury, and the speedster Brett Gardner (same age as Ellsbury 30) at a cheap rate. The Yankees performed much better than expected with what they had this season. They will need to make a splash with the exiting of Mariano Rivera and Andy Pettitte. Ellsbury would be the perfect fit in centerfield and give the Yankees much needed speed at the top and bottom of the lineup.

The Mets are notorious for overpaying for players. Outside of the joke  reality that there two highest outfielders to start the 2013 season were Bobby Bonilla and Jason Bay (neither played for the Mets in 2013). Lets look at some of the Mets stellar signings:

Pedro Martinez (Age 33-36) from 2005-2008 4years/50million
-
Translated to 34Ws.. Fast math....1.47million per win



Carlos Beltran (Aged 28-34) from 2005-2011 7years/100million
- 149HRs for 100mil....

The Mets payroll is wide open next year. They have David Wright for 20Mil, Johan Santana for Team Option of 25Mil (Hard not to chuckle at that), Jonathan Niese for 5Mil, and an option for Aaron Harang for 2Mil. Everyone else has arbitration and/or rookie contracts. The Mets will outbid the Red Sox and possibly the Yankees for Jacoby Ellsbury.

Save the "Oh, Ellsbury is a SAWK for life." spchel. He has won the series in 2007. Win or lose this year, he does not need it. He is 30 years old who is about to be paid. What does the market demand? If Josh Hamilton can get 5years/125Mil from the Angels last year, you figure Ellsbury can demand similar or slightly less. Ellsbury is a career .297 hitter who has averaged 50SB per 162 games played. Having only played 2 full seasons of the past 4 years, the Red Sox will give him a 4-5 year deal in the neighborhood of 90Mil if I had to guess. The Mets and Yankees will top it.(Seattle will make a play and lose... as always in baseball and basketball.. Sorry Seattle). He will get 7 years for something north of 125Mil. The Sox had the emergence of Daniel Nava this year and Jackie Bradley is anxiously awaiting to take center field at Fenway.  They do not need him THAT badly. Pedro better help Jacoby find a surfboard. I hear the surf is ripping in the Long Island Sound come November. See you Boston.. It's been Real.

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